U.S. Futures & World Markets

Stocks are slightly lower premarket after digesting Big Tech earnings after the bell. Google is down 10% after missing estimates and reporting a negative free cash flow number of $9 billion. Microsoft is +1.6% after beating earnings and revenue estimates. Caterpillar is lower after beating numbers, but the stock had faded going into the print and is down 33% from its 52-week high. Momentum money is also moving away from Fortinet after earnings and the stock's recent price spike.

We saw a snapback rally in the AI trade yesterday, led by Oracle. It's encouraging to see the tape holding up this morning with semiconductor stocks (-1.7%) and Google under pressure premarket.

It has been a tale of two tapes lately, with some stocks performing well while others tank. The chart below shows this in negative S&P 500 correlations. Frank Sinatra described the current market pretty well: "All or Nothing at All." https://mcore.hopp.to/youtube393 With all of the traveling last week, I finally got around to watching the Sinatra documentary on Netflix. Worth watching if you're a fan.

As for what's next, Amazon reports after the bell today, and Apple and AMD earnings come next week. After that, we'll get exhausting headlines on the Anthropic IPO around the same time Nvidia earnings hit. Apparently, we can't go more than a few days without another AI event to obsess over.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -16.00  |  10-Year Yield: 5.00%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Markets from 2:00 to 4:00 PM ET after the FOMC: 2-year Treasury yield about -4bp, S&P 500 futures +0.2%, dollar index -0.2%. Fed funds futures price 4.11% after the December 9 meeting, vs. 4.13% just before 2:00. @econvitals via Daily Chartbook.

Countries and regions most aligned with the US bought a net $174.3 billion of Treasuries, excluding bills, in the first eight months of 2026 — the lowest for the period since 2021 and down more than 60% from a year earlier. Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook.

BofA clients sold US equities for the 2nd straight week, led by single stock outflows (-$3.5B after record ~$15B outflows the prior week). BofA via Daily Chartbook.

Sector Sentiment Spread fell another 9 points with an uptick in Defense Sector Sentiment and a slight pullback in Offense Sector Sentiment. Andrew Thrasher, Thrasher Analytics via Daily Chartbook.

After two weeks in which hedge funds and long-onlies dumped tech, megacap vol is not bid to the moon. The Mag 7 are being offered at cheap implied vol relative to the broader tech complex, with the ratio in just the 15th percentile of the past four years. Brian Garrett, Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

Negative SPX correlations: there are 124,750 possible pairs of companies within the S&P, and at present 40% are negatively correlated. That can ultimately be attributed to the zero-sum games created by AI and the oil price shock, and they make life difficult for investors. SocGen via John Authers, Bloomberg — the craziest stat of the day.

Counted from each cycle low, Bitcoin's 2026 rebound followed the 2022-2023 recovery for about three months, then fell behind. Bitcoin is now 38% above its June low; at the same stage in 2023, price was 75% above its low. Glassnode via Daily Chartbook.

The current pace of EPS growth is well above its long-term trend and outsized relative to economic growth. Goldman via Animal Spirits.

Misses have been getting a pass. Companies missing EPS estimates have outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.7 percentage points the day after reporting, vs. a typical 2-point lag since 2000. BofA via Daily Chartbook.

Credit market jitters are especially acute across hyperscalers and chipmakers. Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook.

While not super high yet, CDS prices for the megacap group are not heading in the right direction, and this is not something bulls want to see become a bigger story in the months ahead. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook.

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.