U.S. Futures & World Markets

Equity futures are slightly higher premarket as investors assess another round of corporate earnings and await the FOMC's decision at 2 PM today. Semiconductor stocks and the AI trade have led the tape so far this week. SK Hynix is among the standouts in premarket trading. Brinker, VFC, and Jersey Mike's all reported strong results.

On the downside, crude prices are also up on the WSJ report of a possible post-midterm escalation in Iran. Renewed geopolitical tensions are keeping a lid on the broader market. As for the FOMC meeting, the consensus is that we won't have a rate hike today — the CME FedWatch Tool assigning a 90% probability that rates remain unchanged. Today's game plan: watch the Fed at 2, keep an eye on oil, and remember that earnings — not headlines — ultimately have to do the heavy lifting.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +19.00  |  10-Year Yield: 5.01%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Despite the violent rotation, DB estimates tech has another roughly 5% of relative downside before reaching the bottom of its long-term trend channel. The unwind has been brutal, but the technical reset may not be quite complete. Deutsche Bank via The Market Ear.

From crowded to neutral in just two weeks — DB estimates mega-cap growth and tech positioning has collapsed from the 85th percentile in early October to the 33rd percentile, the lowest in six months and approaching the lows seen during the Iran-war selloff. Deutsche Bank via The Market Ear.

NDX remains stuck in the range in place since May, despite all the narratives thrown at this market. 29k in futures remains the make-or-break level, with the 200-day moving average sitting just below at ~28,500. The Market Ear via Daily Chartbook.

The GS Momentum basket has recorded 30 daily moves of more than 5% in either direction in 2026, exceeding every other year in the dataset, including 2000, 2009, and 2020. And there are still two months left in the year. Brian Garrett, Goldman via The Market Ear.

Back in mid-September, VXN hovered around 20 with NDX at roughly the same levels as today. Now VXN is near 28 — same index level, 40% higher implied volatility. Contra-indicator? Although credit spreads have widened significantly. The Market Ear via Daily Chartbook.

Buying dips toward the 50-day moving average in CIBR has remained a simple but profitable strategy. While much of the AI trade has struggled, cybersecurity continues to display impressive relative resilience. The Market Ear via Daily Chartbook.

The spread between B and CCC credit has reached nearly 8% — something seen only four other times since 1996. On every previous occasion, the S&P 500 was already at least 11.8% below its 52-week high. Today, the index is just 2% below its highs. BTIG via Daily Chartbook.

Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has retreated from extreme levels to -0.5, as investors grow more cautious — leaving risky assets with more room to climb than they had last month. Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

CTA positioning remains relatively elevated: S&P 500 at the 87th percentile, Nasdaq-100 at the 66th percentile, Russell 2000 at the 30th percentile. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook.

Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions. Yet, despite the increase, it remained on the long-term downward trend that's persisted over the past few years. The Conference Board via Daily Chartbook.

Hyperliquid whales are net short Bitcoin for the first time since March — this group managed to long the bottom, but positioning flipped last week. @glassnode via Daily Chartbook.

If history is any guide, today is often the day the reindeer wake their master up and the Santa rally starts to rev up. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook.

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