U.S. Futures & World Markets

US equity futures are slightly lower as the calendar flips to July and we start trading in the third quarter. It was only fitting that stocks finished Q2 on a high note, with semiconductor names once again leading the charge.

If you're wondering just how impressive this market has been, this comment from Tony P. at Goldman says it all: "If S&P closes the year over the 7530 level, that will mark FOUR consecutive years of double digit returns. In the 68-year history of the index, that has only happened ONCE before — technically, it was five straight years, from 1995 through 1999."

Expect lighter trading activity as we head into the long holiday weekend, with the market closed on Friday. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the European Central Bank Forum. The bond market still isn't expecting much movement from the Fed, but investors will be interested to learn more about Warsh's communication style and policy.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -17.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.49%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

AI is not killing jobs — heavy AI adopters grow headcount 10% over two years. @arakharazian via Daily Chartbook: "Firms that adopt AI heavily grow headcount 10% over two years following adoption. Low adopters see no statistically significant change." The Jevons paradox is showing up in the employment data.

Goldman Sentiment Indicator at 2.0 — historically followed by an average 0.4% S&P decline over next month. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: elevated sentiment is a mild near-term headwind but not a bear market signal.

Hedge fund gross leverage still above the 90th percentile despite recent de-risking. JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: "Many hedge fund indicators show a recent de-risking and gross leverage has come down recently but is still at >90th percentile across all time horizons." Elevated leverage is the structural risk hiding beneath the surface.

88% of corporates have entered buyback blackout windows ahead of Q2 earnings. Robbie Stankard, Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: the removal of a key technical buyer into earnings season could weigh on prices. Buybacks resume in force after Q2 reports.

Retail is the structural bid — June on track to be the strongest month in Citadel's dataset, nearly 4x last year's average. Scott Rubner, Citadel via Daily Chartbook: "Retail has become the structural bid. Retail investors are deploying capital at a record pace." When retail is the marginal buyer, the market is vulnerable to sentiment shifts.

Retail bought dips at 3.5x the average daily amount on down days in H1 2026 — strongest buy-the-dip behavior on record. Scott Rubner, Citadel via Daily Chartbook: "Even on SPX rallies, they continued to buy nearly 1.5x the daily average." Retail's confidence has never been more consistent — or more contrarian-flagged.

Retail showed less interest in Mag 7 stocks last week than on 85% of trading days since 2022. Citi via Felice Maranz, Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: even retail is rotating away from the Lag7. A meaningful change in the dominant investing narrative of the past two years.

S&P has made 20+ new highs in H1 — historically the index has NEVER peaked before August in such years, full year positive 100% of the time. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: the bullish seasonal tailwind heading into Q3 is historically very strong from this setup.

For the first time since at least 2010, S&P and breadth have moved in opposite directions for seven straight days — a tie between bulls and bears. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: the index is holding up while fewer stocks participate. The resolution of this breadth divergence will be telling.

Three small-cap sectors set to post their highest monthly closes on record. The Chart Report via Daily Chartbook: the rotation into small caps is showing up in the data. A healthy broadening of the bull market beyond mega-cap AI.

Momentum's 3-year rolling excess return vs. S&P at 118% — approaching the 147% historical peak from the late 1990s. S&P Global via Daily Chartbook: "Momentum continues to deliver exceptional performance relative to the S&P 500 benchmark." The factor's current run is approaching record territory.

Hawkish Fed speak is weighing on multiples, but EPS estimates are up nearly 20% YTD — carrying the market higher. Michael Kantro via Daily Chartbook: the fundamental story remains intact even as valuation headwinds persist. Earnings are doing the heavy lifting.

Consumer confidence inched up in June — business conditions improving, but labor market perceptions softened measurably. The Conference Board via Daily Chartbook: a mixed read that reflects the bifurcated economy — strong at the corporate level, uncertain at the consumer level.

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.