U.S. Futures & World Markets

Stocks are slightly lower premarket as investors return from the long Juneteenth weekend. Positive headlines surrounding progress in US-Iran negotiations have oil ticking lower, although crude remains volatile.

While the earnings calendar will be light this week, the big name everyone will focus on is Micron (MU). They report after the close on Wednesday — all eyes will be on the mega-cap tech company as a barometer for the AI trade. With an insatiable appetite for memory chips and the data center buildout moving full steam ahead, we already know earnings will be impressive. The bigger question is how much of that good news is already priced in. For context, MU is up a staggering 297% year-to-date.

FedEx reports Tuesday and should be another useful read into the health of the US consumer. As the WSJ noted: "FedEx volumes are a bellwether for the economy as a whole, although figures could be messy in the first report since the spinoff of the FedEx Freight business."

On a separate note, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan passed away over the weekend at the age of 100. Greenspan led the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, navigating everything from the 1987 crash to the dot-com boom. He was one of the most influential figures in modern financial history. And his famous warning about "irrational exuberance" won't be forgotten anytime soon.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -18.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.49%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

126 years of market history: stocks and earnings move together with a 98% correlation. Peter Mallouk: "The short run is all about noise. The long run is all about profits. Speculators chase noise. Investors follow profits." The simplest and most durable investment framework there is.

AI earnings growth remains the engine. JPMorgan: forward earnings estimates for AI-adjacent companies continue to rise. The fundamental story hasn't changed even as sentiment has churned.

Nasdaq volatility relative to S&P 500 spiked to its highest in many years — options markets pricing in a tech shakeout. Torsten Slok, Apollo: "Perceived market fragility is now heavily concentrated in growth stocks while overall S&P volatility stays relatively calm." A split-personality market: calm at the index level, turbulent beneath the surface.

Strip out AI and energy, and the S&P 500 is down since January. Torsten Slok, Apollo: "The entire S&P 500's gains have come from just two corners of the market." The most important concentration stat of the year.

Tech's 100-day outperformance vs. S&P 500 at its most extreme level since January 2000 — a 3 standard deviation move. Datatrek Research via Daily Chartbook: a historically rare reading. The prior analog is a cautionary reference, but the fundamental backdrop is radically different.

2026 tech vs. 2000 tech: two very different pictures in price and forward P/E. Matt Cerminaro via Daily Chartbook: "Tech price and forward PE leading into today vs the tech bubble." The valuation story is not the same as 2000 — earnings are real and growing rapidly.

US gasoline average drops below $4 for the first time since late March — now $3.999. @javierblas via Daily Chartbook: "Politically, the fact the first digit of the price is now a 3 is very important for Donald Trump." A disinflationary development that the Fed will watch closely.

Hormuz traffic picking up — 8 crossings yesterday, up from near-zero through March–May. Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: the first tangible signs the MOU is having a real-world effect on shipping. Eastbound traffic leading.

Excess liquidity now negative and falling for the first time since 2021. Simon White, Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: "Declining excess liquidity typically presages a flatter yield curve over the next 3–6 months — a trend already underway, given renewed vigour by yesterday's hawkish Fed dots." A macro headwind that will matter more in H2 2026.

AAII sentiment bearish for the 5th consecutive week — despite stocks near ATHs. AAII via Daily Chartbook: retail investors remain deeply skeptical of the rally. As a contra-indicator, this is constructive for bulls.

Just 8% of investors believe there isn't a bubble in AI-related stocks. AAII via Daily Chartbook: extraordinary pessimism about AI valuations even as AI earnings continue to beat estimates. When almost everyone believes the same thing, it's usually wrong.

Momentum inflows at second-highest level in over a year as geopolitical backdrop improved. JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: money is chasing what's working. A self-reinforcing dynamic until it isn't.

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