U.S. Futures & World Markets

With today's SpaceX IPO, I thought it made sense to switch up the normal Soul Train Friday clip. https://mcore.hopp.to/youtube358

Macro news on a deal with Iran lifted markets yesterday, and we're seeing some follow-through this morning with animal spirits running hot ahead of the SpaceX IPO. According to SpaceX's filing yesterday, the company's valuation is set at roughly $1.77 trillion — the largest IPO in history.

The market's obsession with SpaceX has also created an interesting dynamic: investors are selling some of their biggest winners to fund what many view as the next great growth story. Whether that proves to be the right move remains to be seen, but it's certainly creating some crazy price action beneath the surface.

Adobe reported solid earnings, but the stock is down 7% premarket despite beating expectations and raising guidance above consensus. There is a great chart below on how short-sellers are leaning into software stocks — creating the opportunity for a short squeeze higher, but in the near-term still pressuring these names. It's another reminder that in the short term, expectations and positioning matter more than fundamentals.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +52.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.46%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Trump and crude oil. Commodity Context via Daily Chartbook: a chart tracing the relationship between administration policy and oil price direction — a useful lens for thinking about the Iran deal's energy market impact.

Active managers reduced equity exposure for the second week in a row. NAAIM via Daily Chartbook: active managers pulling back is a constructive contra-indicator for the bulls — they'll eventually need to buy back in.

Bullish sentiment at lowest since September 2025, bearish rising. AAII via Daily Chartbook: "Bearish sentiment rose over the past week while bullish responses dropped to the lowest since Sep'25, pushing the bull-bear spread to a 10-week low." Classic wall-of-worry setup.

Retail sold at record pace on Friday and Tuesday — largest selling day in over a year. JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: "Retail selling was concentrated in two clear liquidation sessions, Friday and Tuesday. In fact, Friday was the largest retail selling day in over a year." Panic selling by retail is historically a bullish contra-indicator.

Retail swung from record tech buying to record tech selling in one week. JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: "Over the past week, retail investor flows have swung from one extreme to another — from outsized Tech buying last week to record-selling the sector this week." Extreme behavioral swings like this often mark short-term turning points.

Software shorts elevated — short squeeze setup if the sector starts working. JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: "The late-May squeeze triggered a wave of panic short covering, but shorts remain elevated on a broader basis. If software starts working again, these investors could quickly find themselves chasing the move higher." A meaningful tailwind waiting to be unlocked.

Russell 2000 outpacing S&P 500 by 8.1% YTD — strongest small-cap outperformance since 2001. Raymond James via Daily Chartbook: the breadth expansion story continues to develop. Small-cap leadership is a healthy sign for the broader market.

S&P RSI fell 34 points in 6 days — only 50th time since 1950; no bear market followed in any of the 16 cases near ATHs. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: "Of those, only 16 occurred while $SPX was within 5% of its all-time high. Over the next 3 months, max drawdown exceeded 10% in only 1 case, and the next 12 months never saw a 20%+ bear market." History continues to lean against the bears.

YTD equity returns have mirrored earnings estimate revisions. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: the cleanest explanation for why this market has done what it's done — earnings are doing the work.

Forward earnings yield vs. real yields at 20+ year lows. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook: "Forward earnings yield spread over 10-year real yields has fallen and remains near 20+ year lows." Stocks are not cheap relative to bonds — but earnings growth is the counterargument.

S&P EPS growth of 24% in 2026 and 13% in 2027 — the fundamental engine for the bull market. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: the foundation under this market isn't speculation — it's real earnings growth at an historically impressive rate.

Interesting Reads

Want this in your inbox every morning?

Morning Core subscribers get this analysis two days before it's published here — plus charts, data, and Nick's unfiltered take on the markets. It's free.

Subscribe to Morning Core — Free
This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.