U.S. Futures & World Markets

Semiconductor stocks and the feedback loop on options positioning have pushed stocks to fresh all-time highs. Equity futures are pointing higher again this morning. The move has been impressive as the AI theme continues to fuel upside momentum. Anticipation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has investors bullish, with crude down roughly 5% this morning.

The rally is trying to broaden, but technology stocks are still doing much of the heavy lifting. Software names have felt the wrath of AI recently — the "SaaS-pocalypse" — so keep an eye on earnings from Snowflake and Salesforce today. Is there room for a rotation from semiconductors to software stocks?

This tape reminds me of the old Rick James skit from Chappelle's Show. Momentum is a helluva drug.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +30.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.46%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

YTD return driven entirely by earnings, not multiple expansion. Duality Research via Daily Chartbook: "The S&P 500's YTD gain has been driven entirely by fundamentals (earnings growth) rather than FOMO (multiple expansion)." This is the healthiest possible foundation for a bull market rally.

Goldman Panic Index near YTD lows. Robbie Stankard, Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "After hovering close to 10 in March/April, the Panic Index has dropped down near YTD lows, signaling an unwind of stress, hedging demand, and macro fear." The fear that fueled the wall of worry is evaporating.

Options speculation rampant — last spike marked the October 'Trash Top'. Macro Charts via Daily Chartbook: "Option speculation is rampant. Important to note the last spike marked the 'Trash Top' in October 2025, which was also an absolute and relative top in Big-Tech (XLK)." A cautionary data point worth monitoring.

Aggregate equity positioning still only modestly overweight. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "Our measure of aggregate equity positioning fell this week and is modestly overweight (0.21sd, 53rd percentile). Discretionary investor positioning fell notably to neutral. Systematic strategies positioning was pared slightly but remained overweight." Not stretched at the aggregate level.

Crowding picking up in large-cap tech specifically. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "Crowding is picking up in large caps, especially in tech." The concentration risk is real even if aggregate positioning isn't extreme.

Hedge funds buy Consumer Discretionary, aggressively short Consumer Staples. Robbie Stankard, Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "After selling Consumer Discretionary stocks in 9 of the previous 10 weeks, hedge funds net bought the sector at the fastest pace in more than two months, driven entirely by long buys. Consumer Staples was by far the most net sold sector — the largest net selling in 5+ years." A meaningful rotation signal.

S&P RSI above 60 for 30 straight days — historically bullish. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: "S&P 500 RSI has stayed above 60 for 30th straight day while the index trades within 2% of its all-time high. In past 13 of 14 cases, the index was higher 4 weeks later, with an average gain of 2.3%."

100% win rate when S&P reaches +10% at any point in the year. @oddstats via Daily Chartbook: "Since the S&P Index went to 500 stocks in 1957: any year where the index was up at least 10% at literally any point during the year — the S&P finished positive for the entire year (43 of 43). The earlier in the year you get to +10% for the first time, the better the year tends to be overall."

Equities have historically rallied during prior high-issuance waves. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "Equities have actually rallied strongly during prior high issuance waves." The IPO supply wave (SpaceX, OpenAI) may not be the headwind bears expect.

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