U.S. Futures & World Markets

Stocks are flat premarket as the market gears up for a full slate of earnings from mega-cap tech after the bell. We also get the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET. While it's widely expected that rates stay unchanged, investors will look for clues in Powell's comments on how higher oil prices will impact potential rate cuts later this year — or maybe even a rate hike.

Last night's earnings were generally bullish, and highlighted the resilience of the US consumer. Starbucks, Visa, and Mondelez all reported solid upside to earnings estimates. Commentary from Visa stood out: "Consumer spending remained resilient… both discretionary and non-discretionary spend remain strong… we do not see signs of the lower spend consumer weakening in our volumes."

You know my story that only two things move stocks — earnings and interest rates. A few charts below help explain why the market has bounced despite higher oil prices and geopolitical noise. That's also why tonight's earnings are so important. AI-driven capex spending has lifted earnings expectations, and the market wants to see that narrative remain intact.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: Flat  |  10-Year Yield: 4.36%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

AI data center capex accelerating. From JPMorgan via Brian Sozzi: data center capex among the top 4 U.S. cloud service providers continues to trend higher for 2026, with the outlook revised upward again — from +52% to +63% growth in 2026. On a dollar basis, that implies more than $200 billion of additional data center capex this year, the largest annual step-up to date. JPMorgan is forecasting 2027 capex growth of 40%, which would translate to a new record of $210B+ in additional spending.

Earnings are driving the market's resilience. Jurrien Timmer: "Booming earnings growth has been a dominant feature of the market's resilience amid some unsettling geopolitical headlines. Were it not for earnings estimates accelerating to a 20% year-over-year rate, surely the recent 9.8% drawdown would have been closer to the nearly 20% haircut in valuations. If that back-and-forth continues, it could mean considerably more upside as forward estimates continue to accelerate higher."

Why haven't stocks fallen further? Ben Carlson: "Why didn't the stock market fall further in the face of a war in the Middle East and an oil price spike? Why are we already back at new all-time highs? In a word — earnings."

Be selective in tech. Michael Kantro via Daily Chartbook: "As investors consider the Tech sector, it's not a question of overweighting the group or not, but rather which Tech stocks to own. Stocks where earnings are doing the heavy lifting have performed far better over time, with less volatility and smaller drawdowns. Price momentum, driven by EPS momentum, is the best momentum."

Consumer confidence surprises to the upside. Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: "US consumer confidence unexpectedly edged up in April to the highest this year as Americans grew more hopeful about the outlook for the labor market."

Hiring slowing at the margins. ADP via Daily Chartbook: "For the four weeks ending April 11, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs a week. After a strengthening trend, hiring was downwardly revised in the first week of April."

Oil overbought — historically bullish for stocks. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: "Oil is up over 70% this year and began rising even before the conflict. It's been 265 trading days since crude last hit oversold levels. After such streaks, pullbacks tend to follow, benefiting the S&P 500. Two months later, the S&P 500 was positive 100% of the time, averaging +3.6%."

Animal spirits are back. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "Over the past four weeks, flows into risky asset funds have overwhelmed those into safe asset funds."

Watch the Mag 7 options positioning. Charlie McElligott, Nomura via Daily Chartbook: "Mag 7 recent 'spot up, vol up' chase into upside leaves it exposed to a de-risking of a lot of options delta in the case of a profit-take, then crescendoing into a sloppier sell-off."

Prediction markets: the house always wins. Denitsa Tsekova, Bloomberg: Since early 2025, 100,000+ Polymarket accounts lost at least $1,000 — nearly 2x the number that made that much. Profits are heavily concentrated among a small group. Everyone else, in aggregate, is down $131 million. If you're playing in prediction markets without inside information, you are the sucker.

Scary stat on car buyers. Charlie Bilello: "30% of car buyers trading in vehicles in the US now have negative equity, owing an average of $7,200 on their old loans." Expect 10-year car loans soon.

"Consumer spending remained resilient… both discretionary and non-discretionary spend remain strong… we do not see signs of the lower spend consumer weakening in our volumes."

Visa — Q1 2026 Earnings Commentary

"Booming earnings growth has been a dominant feature of the market's resilience amid some unsettling geopolitical headlines."

Jurrien Timmer — Fidelity

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.